Registered Democrats in Forsyth County who participated in early voting outnumbered their Republican counterparts about two to one, Election Director Rob Coffman says. That's in a county where registered Democrats make up 45.9 percent of the electorate, and Republicans 33.0 percent.
In Guilford County, the trend is running in the opposite direction, with Republicans showing stronger turnout. Of the approximately 5,110 people who participated in early voting, 39.3 percent were Republican. Republicans make up 29.1 percent of the electorate. The percentage of Democrats that participated in early voting is lower than the Democrats' overall share of the electorate.
High levels of interest among Republicans in Guilford County would seem to bode well for Republican candidates in state legislative races in the fall.
Likely Republican nominee Trudy Wade would ordinarily face an uphill battle in NC Senate District 28, whose electorate is 58.6 percent Democratic, but she might have a shot this year going up against either of the Democratic contenders, who lack the kind of widespread name recognition that comes with experience in elected office. If Democrat Bruce Davis garners enough signatures to get on the ballot as an independent, that will peel off a significant number of Democratic votes and potentially spoil it for the Democratic nominee. High turnout among Republicans only helps Wade more.
High turnout among Republicans could also help Republican Tea Party activist Jeff Hyde, who is running in NC Senate District 27, where Democratic registration runs at 52.6 percent. Hyde's challenge is that he is virtually unknown, while one-term incumbent Democrat Don Vaughan has built up a large reservoir of goodwill and name recognition through his decades of service on the Greensboro City Council and his law practice.
A Republican surge also makes races in NC House districts 57 and 59 worth watching. If Jon Hardister wins the Republican primary, he can be expected to run an energetic campaign with ample grassroots support in District 57, whose registration is 51.1 percent Democratic. Democratic incumbent Pricey Harrison is a formidable fundraiser and is at the top of her game policy wise, so she will be tough to beat.
The most vulnerable Democrat this year might turn out to be Maggie Jeffus, who faces a fiscal conservative ideologue in Republican opponent Theresa Yon. The Republican candidate is agitating against the federal healthcare bill. As a Republican Party fundraiser, she's in a position to call in a lot of favors. Also, she was recruited to run by Republican NC Rep. John Blust.
Across the state, Democrats and Republicans participated in early voting at rates that closely reflected their respective shares of the electorate, with neither interest in unseating Republican US Sen. Richard Burr on the left or Tea Party excitement on the right doing much to change the balance.
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