Elections Director George Gilbert cautions against reading too much portent towards November from the primary, noting that Republicans had more reason to show up at the polls yesterday with 30 races on the ballot. Democrats, in comparison, had only nine.
But surely a competitive US Senate primary should give Democrats ample reason to show up. If they're not sufficiently enthusiastic now, how motivated will they be to show up in November to evict Burr from the US Senate?
Conventional wisdom has it that that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is looking for a clear and compelling leader before they commit money to the race. The June 22 runoff contest between front-runner Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham works against that. And while Marshall captured a sizeable led over Cunningham in statewide ballot, Democrats in Guilford — the state's third most populous county — were more divided, with 29.6 percent favoring Marshall and 29.1 favoring Cunningham.
Chris Kromm, executive director at the Institute for Southern Studies in Durham — and my old boss — sees reasons for trouble for Democrats as a whole, describing Democratic voters as "divided and demoralized":
Incumbent Reps. Larry Kissell (D-8th) and Heath Shuler (D-11th), who both voted against the Democrats' signature health reform bill in March, were both rattled by surprisingly vibrant challenge campaigns from the party's left. Even though the incumbents pulled through, their opponents revealed deep divisions in the Democratic base that could translate into problems this November.
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