Economic outlook: screwed

No matter what your ideological orientation — jobs are created by unshackling the free market or government has a significant role to play in stimulating economic growth — you were bound to be dismayed by the national employment report released by the federal government on June 4. Current economic activity gives little indication that a meaningful recovery is on the horizon. By now, you will be familiar with the reasons: Despite some stimulus funding, business owners still lack faith that things will be better in the future, and aren t doing much hiring. Despite some stimulus funding, consumers lack faith that things will be better in the future and arentt buying many big-ticket items like houses.

As noted by North Carolina economic analyst John Quinterno and others, almost all the job growth in May was a result of the temporary jobs created by the US Census Bureau.

“The May employment report is an uninspiring one that highlights just how dependent the economy is upon policy supports and government action,” Quinterno said in a prepared statement.

Quinterno reports that proportionally more male workers were unemployed than female; black and Hispanic workers were more likely to be unemployed than their white counterparts; and the unemployment rate for veterans who have served in the military since 2001 was almost 1 percentile higher than for the average American.

What’s worse, the labor pool itself has shrunk as some Americans have given up and quit trying to find work.

“In developments inconsistent with recovery, 322,000 individuals left the labor force in May, and the share of the adult population engaged in economically productive activities fell,” Quinterno said. “Compared to a year ago, the labor force is smaller, fewer people are employed and more people are unemployed.”

“Uncertainty” is the word economist loathe the most because it underscores business owners’ hesitation to hire and consumers’ hesitation to buy, but there’s no way to get around it.

“The economy remains dependent on public supports,” Quinterno said, “and it is unclear if it will be able to stand on its own as those supports fall away over the summer.”