Greensboro redistricting by the numbers

District 3 Councilman Zack Matheny has provided me with the new updated population counts for Greensboro voting precincts — which is a public record, for any interested citizens who might be interested in playing with the numbers themselves.

As previously reported, the population growth in the five city council districts has been sufficiently uniform to as to avoid the necessity of redistricting following the 2010 Census. At the same time, there's no prohibition against council redrawing the electoral map if a majority opts to do so.

The population counts for each precinct are important because they tell you if you can move a precinct without upsetting the balance of proportional representation.

Here's what the numbers mean (from a previous blog post revised for print and then cut due to space considerations):

The new Census numbers currently count 2,457 more people in District 3 than in District 1. The population of Precinct G44, which includes the southern tier of downtown and the College Hill neighborhood, is 3,008. Moving those people to District 1 would reverse District 3’s population advantage and increase the variance to 3,559. While such a move would not require additional precinct changes to maintain proportional representation, it would exacerbate the imbalance rather than correct it.

Matheny said losing G44 would not hurt him politically because he isn’t that popular in College Hill, but he remains wary of opening a “pandora’s box” by instigating any changes.

Less ambiguous is Precinct FR3, part of the Cardinal area, which was annexed into the city in 2008. The precinct is currently located in District 5, which is represented by Councilwoman Trudy Wade. Neighboring District 4 holds 4,924 fewer people than District 5; shifting the precinct would reduce the variance to 650 people.

“Mathematically speaking, you could move one precinct and reduce the population variance,” Sherman said, adding that any political considerations are beyond his expertise.

Both District 5 and District 4 currently lean conservative, but in 2009 progressive Joel Landau came within 3.2 percentage points of defeating Mary Rakestraw in District 4. Moving Precinct FR3, which is heavily white and majority Republican, could help Rakestraw consolidate her position in this year’s election, while weakening Wade’s considerable advantage.

Previously.