Guilford County redistricting: Democratic gerrymander

Assuming, for the sake of an academic exercise, that the Guilford County Commission were to adopt a redistricting plan that manipulated electoral lines to ensure that Democrats maintain a majority while also giving two Republicans a strong shot at reeelection, here's how they might do it.

INCUMBENT GERRYMANDER MAP

Starting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the plan ensures that all incumbents who were either elected to represent districts in 2010 or are seeking reelection to district seats in 2012 will be the sole incumbent in their new district so that they may continue to serve without competition from other elected representatives. This plan goes a step further from incumbent protection map, by affecting a clockwise swap to place Democrat Kirk Perkins in a more politically hospitable district. The plan also shores up Republican Bill Bencini’s reelection chances by shedding a heavily Democratic precinct and adding a precinct rich in Republican voters to his district.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 5.8 percent
Drawbacks: Meandering electoral boundary lines do not pay heed to communities of interest in Greensboro minority strength districts and in southeast Guilford district, only worse than incumbent protection map. Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts are split. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Keeps seven sitting commissioners who want to continue to serve in dedicated districts so they may avoid running against each other in future elections, with the added benefit that electoral lines are manipulated to ensure that each incumbent has a politically friendly constituency. Greensboro districts is fairly compact.
Overall political analysis: Likely works out to five seats held by Democrats and three seats held by Republicans, with two to three seats in play. Districts are generally less politically competitive.

Red district (High Point minority strength district)

Hispanic voting age population: 10.1 percent
White voting age population: 37.2 percent
Black voting age population: 45.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 61.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 18.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Green district (Greensboro minority strength district A)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.1 percent
White voting age population: 25.3 percent
Black voting age population: 60.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 8.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Dark blue district (Greensboro minority strength district B)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.0 percent
White voting age population: 26.2 percent
Black voting age population: 62.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 13.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 15.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Carolyn Coleman (D-9)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Purple district (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.9 percent
White voting age population: 70.5 percent
Black voting age population: 17.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Republican lean

Yellow district (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.7 percent
White voting age population: 76.6 percent
Black voting age population: 15.0 percent
Democratic voter registration: 45.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.3 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6), Mike Winstead (R-7)*, Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

Sky blue district (western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.4 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.3 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Republican lean, but competitive

Tan district (northern Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 5.0 percent
White voting age population: 69.7 percent
Black voting age population: 20.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 36.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.5 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4)
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive

Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 5.2 percent
White voting age population: 74.9 percent
Black voting age population: 15.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 39.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Billy Yow (R-5)* and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean

* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.

Previously.