Showing posts with label Guilford County Commission redistricting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guilford County Commission redistricting. Show all posts

Guilford Democrats stunned by Raleigh-imposed redistricting plan

Commissioner Bruce Davis called a redistricting map enacted by the NC General Assembly today "an injustice to the people of High Point."

A committee of the Guilford County Commission held a hearing this evening to determine new district lines despite the fact that the NC House had only hours earlier approved a plan that became state law and imposed a map (link) by state fiat.

“It has been, as far as I’m concerned, a devastating day,” Rep. Alma Adams, a Greensboro Democrat, told the committee. Her Republican colleagues from the Guilford delegation, Reps. John Faircloth and John Blust, voted for the plan.

In a surreal hearing, Republican activists spoke from remarks that appeared to have been prepared before they knew that the Republican leadership in Raleigh had short-circuited the local process.

“Why would we want compact, cohesive, competitive and community-based districts?” asked Ernie Wittenborn, who is active with Conservatives for Guilford County. “In short, such districts would encourage large numbers of the electorate to become engaged in the process, thus improving the depth and width of our democratic process.”

His wife, Joanne, offered, “Some proposed district maps are an embarrassment. A glance at the proposed maps is all that is required to quickly identify gerrymandering. One of the speakers pointed out what good looks like. Chairman Alston’s map illustrates what bad looks like. Bad can be measured by rambling district lines, distorted neighborhood patterns, and obvious selectivity to ensure a predetermined outcome of elections.”

Jim Lewis encouraged the emasculated commission to demonstrate transparency and requested “the commissioners to explain the reasoning behind why they like one map over another and how this specific map could possibly benefit their constituents.”

Commissioner Bruce Davis, a Democrat who represents a majority-black district based in High Point, was taken aback by what he heard.

“Some of the comments that were made were that communities should be kept together, communities should not be separated or violated, or whatever terminology was used,” he said. “But the map that’s proposed that they’re celebrating – maybe they haven’t seen this map. Maybe they have not seen how it divides communities.”

Davis singled out for scorn District 2, which some commissioners joked should be considered an at-large seat because of the way it travels around the county.

“Under the proposal from the General Assembly, you’ve got District 2 coming from the east side of the county, wraps around High Point, comes up through the west side of High Point, goes through Jamestown and Greensboro, makes a fishhook somewhere around I-40. And that seems to be something to celebrate. Give me a break!”

One of the few speakers to strike a discordant note in the hearing was Keith Brown, a Republican from High Point, who had submitted a map (link) for consideration by the commission.

“One of the things that I didn’t do that everybody else wants to do – it just amazes me – is this High Point hook,” Brown said. “Everybody wants to come around High Point and split High Point three ways. My map actually guarantees that a High Point representative will be in that district.”

The Republican leadership in Raleigh gutted an unsuccessful house bill yesterday, inserted language for an omnibus local elections bill affecting Guilford, Mecklenburg, Buncombe and Lenoir counties, approved it in the Judiciary II committee and passed in through the Senate on two votes. A final Senate vote took place this morning, and then a House vote made it law.

Skip Alston, the Democratic chair of the board, noted that he had worked out a deal with NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger in June that would allow the commission to redraw its own district lines, but mandated that the number of seats and districts be reduced. The deal, reflected in a previous session law, set a deadline for the commission to produce a map, which was set to expire next month.

“I talked to Phil Berger, the president of the Senate, last night and he said the reason he did it is because he had gotten calls from constituents in Guilford County and some of our county commissioners saying they didn’t think they were going to get a fair process,” Alston recounted.

“I informed him that he made a promise,” Alston continued. “The only thing a politician really has is really the value of his word. When you give your word as a politician, then you better keep it. Mr. Berger gave us his word, and the state Senate gave us their word, and the state House gave us their word that they were allowing us to draw those lines…. I told him last night: ‘Shame on you. If you can’t keep your word to the people of Guilford County, you can’t keep your word to anybody.’”

Berger’s home precinct is in Eden, and his Senate district reaches down into rural Guilford County. A new Senate redistricting plan moves his district into urban parts of Greensboro, drawing in Democratic Sen. Don Vaughan. The intervention from Raleigh and disruption of Democratic leadership in Greensboro sets up a potential backlash next year when many Greensboro residents will be voting in Berger’s district.

“I understand where y’all are coming from,” said Commissioner Linda Shaw, the lone Republican on the redistricting committee. “The Republicans have been there. I’ve heard two wrongs don’t make a right. We do have Republican control in Raleigh. I hope we will look at this as a board and not as ‘get even.’ And let’s move forward…. This is the map, and I support the map. I would hope that we would move forward without lawsuits or anything else, Mr. Chair.”

County Attorney Mark Payne noted that the map approved by the General Assembly today appears to be the same as one submitted by Shaw to the local redistricting committee that was drawn by the NC Republican Party.

After the meeting, Shaw allowed that the maps were “very similar,” but said she didn’t believe they were the same. When the two maps were placed in front of her, she could not point out any differences. She protested that she had only received the map ultimately approved by the General Assembly yesterday on her Blackberry.

Shaw called the map she submitted to the county commission redistricting committee a “four-four” map, meaning that it would result in four seats held by Republicans and four seats held by Democrats.

Referring to the map approved by the General Assembly, she said, “This is supposed to be five favoring Republicans and three favoring Democrats. They told me the district they’ve got me in is leaning slightly Democratic.”

Shaw’s math doesn’t quite add up: The three minority-majority districts are considered a lock for Democrats. There are five remaining districts. A truer gauge may be voting history: A certain percentage of white Democrats in North Carolina can be expected to cross party lines and vote Republican.

Vaughan said today that the plan enacted by the General Assembly “packs” African-American voters into the three minority-majority precincts and that in two of them the African-American population is as high as 63 percent. Democratic lawmakers have charged that Republican redistricting plans demonstrate a pattern of “segregating” black voters to bleed them out of adjacent districts and maximize the odds for Republican candidates to win.

County Attorney Mark Payne said the county is required by law to submit the map approved by the General Assembly to the US Justice Department for preclearance under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

Alston said the county commission might consider submitting an alternative map to the US Department of Justice, in case the federal government rejects the map imposed by Raleigh, and would consult with the county attorney about its options.

“We are a part of the state, and if the state tells us to do something, we will have to do it,” he said. “But at the same time we are also a part of the federal government. We have our rights there also. We will exercise those, whatever they might be. If there’s nothing we can do, then there’s nothing we can do. But at the same time we’re not going to not fight a fight that can be fought.”

Democratic commission Chairman Skip Alston accused NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger of breaking his word, while Republican Commissioner Linda Shaw, a onetime ally, defended the redistricting plan.

NC legislature redrawing Guilford County Commission map

UPDATE, July 28, 12:14 p.m.: As expected, the local omnibus election bill has passed it's third reading in the NC Senate. If I understand legislative process correctly, that means it will be sent over to the House for consideration.

UPDATE: Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger tells Binker that he ordered the bill after receiving calls from residents and local elected officials in Guilford County expressing concern about "the outline of the maps that were being pursued by the majority in the commission."

UPDATE: The redistricting plan for the Guilford County Commission has passed its second reading in the NC Senate.

ORIGINAL POST: H/T Binker...

Proposed Guilford County Commission redistricting map under discussion by NC Senate this evening:



The session is streaming live (audio link).

Sen. Tom Apodaca, a Republican from Hendersonville, has brought up HB 719 for immediate consideration. The bill redistricts the Guilford and Mecklenburg county commissions, makes elections for the Lenoir County School Board nonpartisan, and prevents the Buncombe County Commission from restructuring. The session is in recess and will resume at 5:20 p.m.

The bill caught Sens. Gladys Robinson and Don Vaughan, two Democratic lawmakers from Guilford County, off guard.

"We were totally surprised this morning when we learned about it," Robinson said. "I was called to say that the Judiciary II committee was going to discuss Guilford County redistricting. I rose to speak, but they would not recognize me."

The bill overrides previous legislation passed in June that mandates that the Guilford County Commission reduce its number of seats and districts, but allows the commission to maintain control over redrawing its own districts. The previous legislation was the product of a compromise between Republican Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger and the Democratic leadership of the Guilford County Commission.

"We're totally disappointed because I was the person who approached Sen. Berger to sit down with the county commission chair... to see if they could work out an agreement," Robinson said. "We're totally surprised and disappointed that he went back on his word."

It is unclear who requested the action or submitted the map under consideration. Keith Brown, a High Point Republican activist, said the map is the same as one submitted by Republican Commissioner Linda Shaw to a local redistricting committee on Monday. However, Al Bouldin, chairman of the Guilford County Republican Party, said the two maps are different.

"Earlier this session we passed a law instructing the Guilford County Commission to reduce its size," Apodaca said on the Senate floor. "We thought we had an agreement among all the stakeholders. They haven’t complied with the plan and may not."

Shedding some light on the purpose of the Guilford County map, Apodaca said, "The plan complies with the requirements of the Voting Rights Act and creates three minority-majority districts. And it creates five districts where Republicans and Democrats can compete equally."

While disavowing any knowledge of who might have submitted the map or requested it, Bouldin echoed Apodaca's sentiments in remarks earlier this afternoon.

"If I had to make an educated guess, I would say that they have become frustrated with some of the maps that they've seen from the commission that look like they don't have fair, competitive races," he said.

Robinson noted on the Senate floor tonight that the county commission was given to Aug. 16 to complete a map.

"I understand after talking to the chairman of the county commission, who knew nothing about this, that they had nine maps and they have a hearing scheduled for tomorrow night," Robinson said. "And those maps were submitted by both Democrats and Republicans."

Allison Riggs, a voting rights attorney with the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, said the Mecklenburg County Commission has spent six months "having a really engaged public process" that draws on citizen input, and that tonight's Senate vote upends that participation. She added that the Guilford County Commission has spent the past 40 days developing redistricting maps at the direction of the General Assembly.

"It's very disrespectful to local government who have engaged in good public policy and good governance to have that upended like this," Riggs said. "There's no room for meaningful comment on what a bill does and what it means to minority voters when it's passed last minute secretly like this.

"It's not fair to any Guilford County citizens who have participated in redistricting hearings and to elected representatives. This usurps that process. It's not what the leadership promised."

The first Guilford County redistricting hearing — now perhaps moot — was scheduled for tomorrow evening. Among those most upset about the surprise vote was Keith Brown, a Republican activist from High Point, who has submitted a map (link) for consideration to the county commission's redistricting committee.

Brown called the plan approved by the NC Senate tonight "asinine" and "ridiculous," and bemoaned in particular how one district snakes along the southern end of Guilford County and then makes a curvilinear path one precinct wide through High Point and Jamestown and then through the Greensboro neighborhoods of Adams Farm and Starmount.

"This blindsided me," Brown said. "I'm working on how I'm trying to get my map approved by the county commission.... We're going through the process. They had 60 days to do this. Go to my blog. I've got how many days are left on Triad Watch. I have them counting down. We're, as we speak, 20 days left. It ain't like they did this after the county commission sat on it. This makes no sense."

YES! Weekly published an illustrative map (link) today that presents an alternative to one favored by Skip Alston, the Democratic chair of the Guilford County Commission.

Sen. Martin Nesbitt, an Asheville Democrat, suggested the Senate plan to redistrict the Guilford County Commission could run afoul of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

"I wish you all the luck in the world in Guilford County," he said. "They’re covered in the Voting Rights Act. They can defend themselves."

Guilford County is covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. Regulations (link) adopted by the US Department of Justice state that supplemental contents that may be submitted to the federal government as part of a proposed redistricting change include

Publicity and participation. For submissions involving controversial or potentially controversial changes, evidence of public notice, of the opportunity for the public to be heard, and of the opportunity for interested parties to participate in the decision to adopt the proposed change and an account of the extent to which such participation, especially by minority group members, in fact took place.


UPDATE: Graham moves to amend the bill to remove Mecklenburg County.

Sen. Apodaca:

As we grow as a state, our cities grow faster than almost any other part of our counties. It makes it very difficult for our folks in the municipalities to have a voice because you’re going to be overrun by the big city. This is a way to let our small areas — they don’t like that. They want to have a say in their government…. This isn’t a controlled conspiracy to hurt anyone in particular, but to let everyone have a voice.


UPDATE: The amendment fails 19-29.

UPDATE: Two amendments submitted respectively by Sens. Robinson and Vaughan fail.

UPDATE: Sen. Nesbitt:

"People back home don’t like it when Raleigh crams stuff down our throats…. It’s totally and completely outrageous, and the voters are going to get you. We’re going to make sure that they know what you’ve done. You’ve disenfranchised the voters. Government is supposed to be theirs, not yours and mine."

UPDATE: The Senate passes the second reading of the bill on a vote of 29 to 19, and adjourns until 8 p.m.

UPDATE: The Senate will take a third vote on the local redistricting bill when it reconvenes tomorrow at 10 a.m.

Coley says he played no role in creating Alston's redistricting map

Jason Coley says he is not one of the anonymous "advisors" cited by Democratic county commission Chairman Skip Alston as having helped him create a redistricting plan that features bizarrely drawn districts.

Coley, via Facebook:

Regarding the map, I was not one of the dozen (as quoted in the N&R) advisors. I have not been contacted by Skip Alston, and the first viewing I had of the map was when it was online. I noticed the same type of wrap around High Point on the legislative maps as well. I would assume that the same people are using the same mapping software.


I have also left messages for Alston and for Bill Burckley, a political consultant with experience creating redistricting maps, seeking clarity on this map. Neither have returned my calls.


Skip Alston's map

Skip Alston Map

Skip Alston, Democratic chair of the Guilford County Commission has submitted a redistricting map to meet the requirements of a state law reducing the number of districts on the board and also to respond to the news population numbers for the county following the 2010 Census.

Beyond meeting requirements of federal and state law to ensure three majority minority districts, the Alston plan features bizarrely drawn lines that cobble together disparate geographic areas. The lines appear to be drawn for the purpose of ensuring that incumbents win and creating five seats that heavily favor Democratic candidates. In contrast, the more compact maps proposed by the county GOP, have four seats that are favorable to Democrats and four favorable to Republicans. Alston said last week that he received help for his map from a group of "trusted advisors" whose identity, he said, was "confidential."

Some additional analysis from YES! Weekly here.

Courtesy of the county Republican Party, here is the full complement of proposed maps with accompanying voter and demographic data.

One way or another, the district lines will be redrawn — that's a given every 10 years following the Census. You can be sure that elected officials, political operatives and party activists will be involved. Ordinary citizens should be engaged and vocal, too.


Guilford commission redistricting maps released

At yesterday's meeting of the Guilford County Commission redistricting committee, five proposed maps were passed around. Three were submitted by Skip Alston, the Democratic chair of the commission. One was filed by the Guilford County Republican Party and another was submitted by Keith Brown, an active member of the Guilford GOP.

It should come as no surprise that the contending maps differ along partisan lines. For Democrats, the goal is to pack as many Republicans as possible into three districts to give their own party the advantage in the remaining five. Republicans best bet is to pack Democrats into three majority minority districts and one Greensboro district that hovers around the Friendly Shopping Center to create Republican majorities in the remaining four districts.

Kudos to Keith Brown for posting his map online (link here) with an explanation of his rationale.

Brown's map is fairly compact, with a High Point minority strength district running in a straight line through rural-suburban Sumner 1 precinct into south Greensboro. A Greensboro minority strength district follows Interstate 40 from the West Wendover Avenue intersection out to Replacements Limited, making a detour through Glenwood, downtown and Fisher Park along the way. The second Greensboro minority strength district begins in Ole Asheboro and encompasses a wide swath traveling north to the Browns Summit area. It should be noted that Alston and Bruce Davis are drawn into the same district, and Carolyn Coleman is drawn out of a minority strength district altogether. All three are black Democrats.

The white Greensboro district is safely Democratic, encompassing the North Elm Street, Battleground Avenue, Friendly Avenue and West Market Street corridors. Incumbent Kay Cashion would have no problem winning reelection in it. Another district runs from Oak Ridge down to Jamestown, picking up some west Greensboro precincts along the way. Republican Linda Shaw lives in this district. It leans Republican, but is more competitive than her old district. A High Point district that includes the affluent Emerywood neighborhood and northern suburbs looks much the same as before. It looks safe for Republican incumbent Bill Bencini. Democrat Kirk Perkins is drawn into a southeast Guilford district that leans Republican and looks like the one currently represented by Republican Billy Yow. Finally, a new district splits conservative Summerfield and Stokesdale from other parts of the northwest and runs across the northern portion of the county.

The map submitted by the county GOP looks somewhat like Brown's, with two significant differences. It draws Coleman into a southern Greensboro minority strength district, giving her a good shot at reelection. The compromise splits the two Pleasant Garden precincts. No such luck for Alston and Davis, who are left to compete for a seat in the High Point-Greensboro hybrid minority strength district. Another difference between the two plans is that the GOP plan places Jamestown and Adams Farm in the white High Point district.

The three maps submitted by Alston protect incumbents and maximize the chances for the Democrats to maintain their majority on the commission. Like the Republican plans, the High Point minority strength district travels up into to south Greensboro, but this time it bypasses Precinct 59, where Alston lives. Alston's urban Greensboro districts runs west to east, picking up the Greensboro Coliseum and traveling beyond NC A&T University. Meanwhile Coleman's district curves around the eastern bulge of Alston's district, traveling from Lees Chapel Road down to Pleasant Garden.

Like the Republican plans, Alston's plans show a central-northwest Greensboro district that is tailor made for Cashion, a fourth Democratic representative. The second accomplishment of the Alston plans is to draw a fifth district that is favorable for Kirk Perkins, which is located in northeast Guilford County. Under this scenario, the southeast corner of the county does not have sufficient population to create a whole district before it bumps into High Point all the way around in the southwest corner. The problem is solved by allowing the southeast district to meander up through High Point. The result is that High Point is carved into three districts.

There was some mention that Alston's maps and any others submitted would be posted on the county website for public review, but I have not been able to find them there yet.

The deadline for members of the public to submit maps was previously set for Wednesday, but the committee extended it to 5 p.m. on Friday. Maps should be delivered to the legal department.

"I think if you'll give to Friday, that would be extra generous," Cashion said.

At yesterday's meeting, Alston again mentioned the possibility of the commission voting to put the board's structure and size to a referendum as an alternative to following the reduction from 11 to nine members (and from nine to eight districts) mandated by the NC General Assembly.

Perkins has said in the past that he doesn't see a problem with the board's size, but that he doesn't see anyone on the board championing a referendum and doesn't believe voters would approve it if it were put on a ballot. But today John Parks, a Democratic at-large member who would find himself exiled for two years due to a quirk in the state law, expressed strong support for a referendum.

"This is pure democracy," he said. "It's a decision that's not going to be taken lightly. It's going to last ten years."

Democratic constituents appear to be complacent about the maneuvering to change the board's structure and redraw lines.

"The Democrats are please out there with how it is," he said, "and I'm not sure they realize we're on the brink of change."

The Guilford GOP and High Point minority representation

The Guilford County Republican Party submitted a map to the NC General Assembly when state lawmakers were hashing out a deal to reduce the size of the Guilford County Commission in June. As a compromise, Republican state lawmakers set aside the map and allowed the Democratic-controlled commission to redraw its own map. The GOP map (shown) below is the only one published to date that creates three districts with more than 50 percent black voting age population, in compliance with the law passed last month by the General Assembly

Guilford GOP redistricting planAuthor: Guilford County Republican Party
Deviation from ideal population: 3.1 percent
Drawbacks: Disrupts current relationships between elected representatives and constituents by drawing Democrats Kirk Perkins and Carolyn Coleman into the same district, and a Republican-leaning one at that. Draws Republican Linda Shaw into a Democratic leaning district. Draws Democrats Skip Alston and Bruce Davis into the same district. Boundary lines are somewhat irregular in south and southwest Greensboro by necessity to meet the requirements of the Voting Rights Act.
Advantages: Appears to be the only plan that is able to maintain 50 percent black voting age population in the High Point minority strength district. The plan is fairly compact, and respects communities of interest by keeping Pleasant Garden, Summerfield and the Greensboro neighborhood of Adams Farm in the same districts.
Overall political analysis: Democrats have three guaranteed seats, a strong chance of holding an additional seat, and are favored to win still another seat. Republicans hold a strong advantage in three districts.

District 1 (High Point minority strength district)

Hispanic voting age population: 8.1 percent
White voting age population: 33.7 percent
Black voting age population: 51.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 69.5 percent
Republican voter registration: 13.3 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.2 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

District 2 (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.2 percent
White voting age population: 69.0 percent
Black voting age population: 18.5 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.6 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Republican lean, but competitive

District 3 (western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.9 percent
White voting age population: 70.4 percent
Black voting age population: 18.2. percent
Democratic voter registration: 39.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 35.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.9 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive

District 4 (Greensboro minority strength)

Hispanic voting age population: 9.3 percent
White voting age population: 31.4 percent
Black voting age population: 52.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 69.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 12.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 18.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

District 5 (Greensboro minority strength)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.4 percent
White voting age population: 20.1 percent
Black voting age population: 68.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 74.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 9.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 16.4 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

District 6 (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 5.0 percent
White voting age population: 75.2 percent
Black voting age population: 16.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 37.5 percent
Republican voter registration: 40.6 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.7 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow* (R-5) and Carolyn Coleman (D-9)
Political analysis: Republican lean

District 7 (northern Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.2 percent
White voting age population: 82.6 percent
Black voting age population: 10.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 32.5 percent
Republican voter registration: 43.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Republican lean

District 8 (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.4 percent
White voting age population: 77.2 percent
Black voting age population: 14.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 45.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.2 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.0 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6) and Mike Winstead* (R-7)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.


Guilford County redistricting: Democratic gerrymander

Assuming, for the sake of an academic exercise, that the Guilford County Commission were to adopt a redistricting plan that manipulated electoral lines to ensure that Democrats maintain a majority while also giving two Republicans a strong shot at reeelection, here's how they might do it.

INCUMBENT GERRYMANDER MAP

Starting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the plan ensures that all incumbents who were either elected to represent districts in 2010 or are seeking reelection to district seats in 2012 will be the sole incumbent in their new district so that they may continue to serve without competition from other elected representatives. This plan goes a step further from incumbent protection map, by affecting a clockwise swap to place Democrat Kirk Perkins in a more politically hospitable district. The plan also shores up Republican Bill Bencini’s reelection chances by shedding a heavily Democratic precinct and adding a precinct rich in Republican voters to his district.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 5.8 percent
Drawbacks: Meandering electoral boundary lines do not pay heed to communities of interest in Greensboro minority strength districts and in southeast Guilford district, only worse than incumbent protection map. Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts are split. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Keeps seven sitting commissioners who want to continue to serve in dedicated districts so they may avoid running against each other in future elections, with the added benefit that electoral lines are manipulated to ensure that each incumbent has a politically friendly constituency. Greensboro districts is fairly compact.
Overall political analysis: Likely works out to five seats held by Democrats and three seats held by Republicans, with two to three seats in play. Districts are generally less politically competitive.

Red district (High Point minority strength district)

Hispanic voting age population: 10.1 percent
White voting age population: 37.2 percent
Black voting age population: 45.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 61.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 18.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Green district (Greensboro minority strength district A)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.1 percent
White voting age population: 25.3 percent
Black voting age population: 60.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 8.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Dark blue district (Greensboro minority strength district B)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.0 percent
White voting age population: 26.2 percent
Black voting age population: 62.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 13.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 15.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Carolyn Coleman (D-9)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Purple district (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.9 percent
White voting age population: 70.5 percent
Black voting age population: 17.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Republican lean

Yellow district (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.7 percent
White voting age population: 76.6 percent
Black voting age population: 15.0 percent
Democratic voter registration: 45.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.3 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6), Mike Winstead (R-7)*, Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

Sky blue district (western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.4 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.3 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Republican lean, but competitive

Tan district (northern Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 5.0 percent
White voting age population: 69.7 percent
Black voting age population: 20.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 36.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.5 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4)
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive

Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 5.2 percent
White voting age population: 74.9 percent
Black voting age population: 15.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 39.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Billy Yow (R-5)* and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean

* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.

Previously.


Three possible ways to redraw electoral lines for the Guilford County Commission

The following are illustrative maps showing possible redistricting scenarios for the Guilford County Commission. The commission has been directed by the NC General Assembly to reduce its size from 11 to nine members and to reduce its number of districts from nine to eight. Members of the public may submit maps for consideration to the county’s legal department.

These maps are not being submitted to the county staff and are not endorsed by the author, but rather are intended to provoke public comment about how electoral district lines can be redrawn for the Guilford County Commission to provide the most representative and accountable government for citizens. Public engagement is critical to achieving positive outcomes in local government. The commission is expected to vote to adopt a redistricting plan next month.

All three maps attempt to comply with the criteria established by House Bill 450, which was approved by the NC General Assembly last month. The law requires at least three districts with a black voting age population of greater than 50 percent and that the plan achieve a population balance with no more than 10 percentage points between the largest and smallest district.

INCUMBENT PROTECTION MAP

Starting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the plan ensures that all incumbents who were either elected to represent districts in 2010 or are seeking reelection to district seats in 2012 will be the sole incumbent in their new district so that they may continue to serve without competition from other elected representatives. Takes into consideration communities of interest, where possible.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 9.2 percent
Drawbacks: Meandering electoral boundary lines do not pay heed to communities of interest in Greensboro minority strength districts and in southeast Guilford district. Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts are split. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Keeps seven sitting commissioners who want to continue to serve in dedicated districts so they may avoid running against each other in future elections. Somewhat resembles current plan, allowing maximum number of voters to maintain relationship with representatives. Greensboro and north-northeastern Guilford districts are fairly compact.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.

Red district (High Point minority strength district)

Hispanic voting age population: 10.1 percent
White voting age population: 37.2 percent
Black voting age population: 45.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 61.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 18.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Green district (Greensboro minority strength district A)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.2 percent
White voting age population: 23.1 percent
Black voting age population: 63.0 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 8.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Dark blue district (Greensboro minority strength district B)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.0 percent
White voting age population: 26.2 percent
Black voting age population: 62.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 13.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 15.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Carolyn Coleman (D-9)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Purple district (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.1 percent
White voting age population: 67.7 percent
Black voting age population: 19.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup

Yellow district (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.8 percent
White voting age population: 76.9 percent
Black voting age population: 14.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 45.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6), Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

Sky blue district (western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.4 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Republican lean

Tan district (northern Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.7 percent
White voting age population: 73.0 percent
Black voting age population: 19.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 35.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.7 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive

Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.8 percent
Black voting age population: 14.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)* and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean

* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.

GEOGRAPHIC COMPACTNESS MAP

Starting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the map is drawn to give the remaining five districts maximum compactness, while also taking into consideration communities of interest.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 5.8 percent
Drawbacks: Incumbents are placed in the same district, or “double-bunked,” making it unlikely that such a plan would garner sufficient votes to be adopted. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Generally creates compact and well defined districts, with the exception of a meandering minority strength district made up of High Point, Jamestown and Greensboro precincts. Northeast and southeast Greensboro each have their own district. Keeps Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts together.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.

Green district (High Point minority strength)

Hispanic voting age population: 10.2 percent
White voting age population: 35.3 percent
Black voting age population: 47.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 63.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 17.6 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.0 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1) and Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Pink district (Greensboro minority strength A)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.7 percent
White voting age population: 22.9 percent
Black voting age population: 63.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.1 percent
Republican voter registration: 9.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Red district (Greensboro minority strength B)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.6 percent
White voting age population: 23.8 percent
Black voting age population: 63.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 10.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.4 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Purple district (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.7 percent
White voting age population: 66.6 percent
Black voting age population: 19.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup

Tan district (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 46.0 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6) and Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

Sky blue district (northwest and western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.2 percent
White voting age population: 76.7 percent
Black voting age population: 10.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 33.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 41.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Republican lean

Yellow district (northern and northeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.4 percent
White voting age population: 77.2 percent
Black voting age population: 15.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 39.1 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.2 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Tossup

Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population:
4.0 percent
White voting age population: 76.2 percent
Black voting age population: 16.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 37.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 40.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)*, Carolyn Coleman (D-9) and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean

* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.

SUPER GEOGRAPHIC COMPACTNESS MAP

Starting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the map is drawn to give the remaining five districts maximum compactness, while also taking into consideration communities of interest. In other words, this map is drawn based on the same considerations as the geographic compactness map. It takes the principle a step further by attempting to straighten out electoral district boundaries by swapping some precincts, with the tradeoff that minority population is diluted in the High Point minority strength district and one of the Greensboro minority strength districts. Precincts G26 (near Lees Chapel Road in Greensboro), G69 and G70 (East Lee Street in Greensboro) Fentress 2 (in southeast Guilford) and G57 (off of Freeman Mill Road in Greensboro) are affected
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 6.4 percent
Drawbacks: Incumbents are placed in the same district, or “double-bunked,” making it unlikely that such a plan would garner sufficient votes to be adopted. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Generally creates compact and well defined districts, with the exception of a meandering minority strength district made up of High Point, Jamestown and Greensboro precincts. Northeast and southeast Greensboro each have their own district. Keeps Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts together.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.

Green district (High Point minority strength)

Hispanic voting age population: 10.4 percent
White voting age population: 35.6 percent
Black voting age population: 46.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 62.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 17.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1) and Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Pink district (Greensboro minority strength A)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.3 percent
White voting age population: 31.3 percent
Black voting age population: 56.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 69.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 12.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.6 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Red district (Greensboro minority strength B)

Hispanic voting age population: 7.3 percent
White voting age population: 21.0 percent
Black voting age population: 66.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 9.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 16.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold

Purple district (High Point)

Hispanic voting age population: 6.7 percent
White voting age population: 66.6 percent
Black voting age population: 19.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup

Tan district (Greensboro)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 46.0 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6) and Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Democratic lean

Sky blue district (northwest and western Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.2 percent
White voting age population: 76.7 percent
Black voting age population: 10.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 33.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 41.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Republican lean

Yellow district (northern and northeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 3.5 percent
White voting age population: 74.7 percent
Black voting age population: 17.5 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 35.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.4 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive

Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)

Hispanic voting age population: 4.0 percent
White voting age population: 76.2 percent
Black voting age population: 16.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 37.7 percent
Republican voter registration: 40.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)*, Carolyn Coleman (D-9) and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean

Submit your own redistricting map.

The public is invited to the redistricting committee of the Guilford County Commission through Wednesday, July 6. Maps can be sent to Guilford County Legal Department, PO Box 3427, Greensboro, NC 27402, or e-mailed to mpayne@co.guilford.us.

Happy Fourth of July!

Guilford County redistricting committee invites public to submit maps

















A redistricting committee led by Democratic county chairman Skip Alston, flanked by Democrat Kay Cashion (left) and Republican Linda Shaw first met last month.


A redistricting committee headed by Democratic Guilford County Commission Chairman Skip Alston is inviting the public to submit maps to redraw electoral lines reflecting a new structure with eight districts.

Kirk Perkins, a Democratic committee member who represents District 4 on the commission, suggested next Wednesday be set as a deadline for county staff to receive submitted maps from the public, but the matter was not fully resolved.

“I think the best way for us on the staff side to look at this any maps that we receive prior to or at the next meeting we’ll be able to say that we can fully vet those and fully evaluation,” County Attorney Mark Payne said. “Things that come in after that, we’ll give it what review we can and you give it what review you guys can. I think the thing to tell the public is that the earlier you participate the more appropriate the evaluation will be of those maps.”

To meet the Constitutional test of equal representation, any map must be drawn so that the eight districts are within 10 percent of equal, or ideal, population. And Guilford County falls under Section 5 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, so any map approved by the county commission must be submitted to the US Justice Department for preclearance. To have a reasonable chance of passing muster with the federal government, the plan must avoid retrogression, which means essentially that it cannot make minority voters worse off.

Maps should be mailed to

Guilford County Legal Department
PO Box 3427
Greensboro, NC 27402

Or e-mailed to

mpayne@co.guilford.us


“Frankly,” Payne said, “I’m surprised we haven’t received any yet.”

One eight-district map (shown here) was created by the Guilford County Republican Party and submitted to the General Assembly. Ultimately, the Republican leadership of the General Assembly decided to allow the Democratic-controlled county commission to draw its own map, and the map drawn by the county party was set aside.

The redistricting committee will hold a public hearing to receive input on the proposed maps at the Old County Courthouse in Greensboro on July 28. The committee will hold a final meeting on Aug. 3, and then bring a recommendation to the full county commission on Aug. 4.

The NC General Assembly passed a law in June restructuring the Guilford County Commission from an 11-member board with nine districts and two at-large representatives to a nine-member board with eight districts and one at-large representative. The law requires that the board redraw its lines within 60 days of enactment.

Alston indicated he is interested in bypassing the state law by holding a referendum that would give voters the option of maintaining an 11-member board.

“The board of commissioners has the additional option of making a determination as to whether they want to make a change to that,” Payne said. “That has to happen by a vote of the board and by a public referendum. Now, what’s significant in that determination is if the board of commissioners wants to consider some board structure that is different from what is set out in the statute — again that has to be by resolution and referendum — in order to meet the deadlines that you have to meet, including getting DOJ approval and in practical terms, that’s a decision that has to be made by the middle of August.”

(To view a set of illustrative maps created by YES! Weekly, including a number of nine-district scenarios, click here.)

Considering the possibility of a referendum, the county commission redistricting process is currently on a dual track: one with eight districts and one with nine districts.

Members of the school board attended today’s redistricting meeting, but going forward the school board redistricting process will proceed separately. Members of both boards have said in the past that they would like to keep district lines for the county commission and school board uniform to make it easy for voters to keep up with their representation.

Unlike the county commission, the school board is not subject to the recent law passed by the General Assembly, and school board members agreed that they want to maintain nine districts. Members said they wanted to take additional time to gather public input.

The state law requires that the new eight-district plan include at least three districts with a black voting age population of greater than 50 percent, minimize the dividing of precincts, to the extent practicable “respect communities of interest,” and “not consider the place of residence of incumbents except as necessary to comply with Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.”

Under any scenario, it will be difficult to draw a map that maintains a 50 percent or greater black voting age population in District 1 (map), which is currently represented by Bruce Davis on the county commission and J. Carlvena Foster on the school board. The district is one of three mandated majority minority districts in the county.

“That is the slowest growing population of all the districts and it is surrounded by districts that are growing a great deal,” Payne said. “And it’s happenstance — it’s just the nature of it — all the areas immediately surrounding that district, if you look at the demographics of those precincts, you’ve got a majority white. You’ve got to add population to that district, and we’ve got to maintain that majority black population. You’ve got to make sure you don’t have an excessive impact on the effectiveness of the African-American vote. That’s going to be a challenge — to bring up the population to the extent you need to, but still maintain those balances.”

The county commissioners learned today that the law passed last month by the General Assembly would result in a two-year period from 2012 to 2014 in which the board has no at-large representatives. The two at-large seats are currently held by Democrats Paul Gibson and John Parks.

The reduction from nine to eight districts results in a game of musical chairs except that the chair would not be pulled out from the ninth district until 2014. In the meantime, the county would do without a single at-large member. The board would keep nine district members through 2014 because of a provision of the new law stipulating that no change in the boundaries of a district affect the unexpired term of a member of the board.

Five members were elected last year and do not come up for reelection until 2014: Davis in District 1, Republican Bill Bencini in District 2, Republican Linda Shaw in District 3, Democrat Kay Cashion in District 6 and Democrat Carolyn Coleman in District 9.

Terms on the county commission are staggered, and the four remaining district seats are up for reelection next year. As a result, four new or reelected district representatives would join five who are filling unexpired terms. As a result, two members would serve from the same district, raising a thorny constitutional question about equal representation. The new at-large members would normally be up for reelection next year, but under the new law the election for one at-large seat would be held in 2014.

Neither of the two at-large representatives are happy with the 8-1 plan mandated by the NC General Assembly.

"It's only one [seat]," Parks said after the meeting. "You've got two of us. And then you have to wait two years."

By reducing the number of districts from nine to eight, the commission also faces the unwelcome task of drawing two incumbents into the same district and potentially forcing them to run against each other. That difficulty is somewhat eased by the fact that District 5 Commissioner Billy Yow and District 7 Commissioner Mike Winstead, whose seats are in play next year, have announced that they do not plan to seek reelection.

"It's going to be a fluid process," Payne said. "And I've looked around. There's not a perfect way to do this. It's, in my opinion, by definition an imperfect process. There'll be a lot of give and take, and that's the way it works."

Guilford County commissioner unhappy with her party over redistricting plan (updated)

ORIGINAL POST: Guilford County Commissioner Linda Shaw, a Republican, expressed displeasure about a redistricting plan created by her party. She confronted Jon Firebaugh, the vice chair of the Guilford County Republican Party, about changes to her district. She also complained that Firebaugh did not share earlier plans with her until she asked for them.

Guilford County commissioner confronts GOP county VC, part 1 from Jordan Green on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green2 on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green2 on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green on Vimeo.



UPDATE: Firebaugh acknowledges he misspoke when he said that Shaw only represents one Summerfield precinct.

"She was right," he says. "I was wrong."

Firebaugh says he had another map in mind when he made the statement. In fact, District 3, which Shaw represents, includes all four Summerfield precincts and two Oak Ridge precincts. Her complaint about the map drawn by her party is that it draws her out of a significant portion of her current district.

Firebaugh says he apologized to Shaw on Joe Guarino's blog, and plans to do so directly, too.

(Production note: I'm attempting to process additional video from yesterday's exchange, and plan to post it in sequence. The slow progress is frustrating.)

UPDATE 2: The final fourth video (third in the sequence) is posted.

Linda Shaw take-away quote: "“I am disappointed that my Republican Party that I have worked 50 years for has come to this.”

The feeling is apparently mutual.

"Frankly, I’m disappointed in Linda Shaw," Guilford County Republican Party Executive Director Michael Picarelli told me today. He added that for years Republicans have complained about Democratic gerrymandering, and Shaw should understand that the process is not about her.

The plan created by the Guilford County GOP would have drawn Shaw into a new district that shifted southward, and shed Summerfield, Stokesdale and Oak Ridge precincts to create a new district stretching across northern Guilford County.

After Firebaugh left yesterday, Shaw complained to commission Chairman Skip Alston and Commissioner Kay Cashion, both Democrats: "This is pitiful, pathetic. Now, Don Wendelken and Sam Spagnola can run without having to beat me."

Spagnola and Wendelken, who respectively reside in Oak Ridge and Summerfield, each ran for Shaw's seat in 2006, and Spagnola challenged her again last year.

Picarelli said the northern district was not drawn to favor any prospective candidates. He also said that Shaw's new district would have given her a healthy percentage of registered Republican voters to protect her from a Democratic challenger.

"Our consideration when we drew the maps was reducing the number of districts, not touching the minority districts and could we possibly get four Republicans elected," he said. "That's it."

Initially, the Republicans had hoped to reduce the number of districts from nine to six, but Picarelli said any map with less than eight districts would have failed the retrogression test and would likely have been rejected by the US Justice Department.

Picarelli also said the party wanted to avoid making the same mistake as the Greensboro City Council, when the majority faction initially passed a redistricting plan that was criticized as being retrogressive, or harmful to minority voters.

"When the commissioner map was looked at that was one thing that was looked at over and over again," he said. "Six and three was what we initially wanted. The only way to do that was to have two minority districts, and there was no way to do that without diluting one of the minority districts."

Picarelli said he is happy that the NC Senate passed a bill today to reduce the number of seats, but disappointed that the legislative action gives the Democratic-dominated commission the right to draw lines for themselves. He said he expects that the commission will draw a map that creates only three Republican-leaning seats and will contort the lines to ensure that Democrats retain their advantage.

UPDATE 3: Binker reports that both houses of the General Assembly have passed the bill reducing the number of districts in the Guilford County Commission to eight, but allowing the Democratic-controlled commission to draw the lines. Courtesy of the News & Record, here's the amended language that was approved.


Guilford County Commission redistricting string

UPDATE: Binker reports that following a meeting between Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) and Guilford County Commission Chair Skip Alston, a Democrat, a compromise is being considered in which the Republican-controlled NC General Assembly would reduce the number of seats, but the Democratically-controlled commission would be allowed to redraw the lines.

ORIGINAL POST: Report from Binker on the Republican legislation to reduce the size of the Guilford County Commission.

Guilford GOP regular Theresa Yon reports on Facebook that the lightning-fast Blust bill has passed its second of three readings.

The map.

Some fallout.

Some discussion.

Michael Picarelli, executive director, Guilford County Republican Party:

The only word to know in this case is “retrogression.” This is how the Democrats have maintained their voter base in minority districts since 1965. In a perfect world, this plan would have been six districts and three at-large. In addition, the chair can only be elected in an at-large seat. No matter how we moved the map the DOJ would have rejected the plan based on the following:

There are four basic legal principles that govern the redistricting process: (1) the “one person-one vote” (equal population) principle; (2) Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, requiring preclearance and applying a “retrogression” standard to minority group populations in specific districts; (3) the non-discrimination standard of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act; and (4) the Shaw v. Reno limitations on the use of race as a factor in redistricting.


Jon Firebaugh tells me that the eight-district plan preserves three majority-minority voting districts. The majority-minority district in High Point that is currently represented by Bruce Davis stretches into south Greensboro in order to capture a sufficient number of black voters to retain its status.

I haven't had a chance to run the numbers to independently analyze the racial and partisan implications of the plan.

Firebaugh also said that all commissioners who were elected last year — Bruce Davis in District 1, Bill Bencini in District 2, Linda Shaw in District 3, Kay Cashion in District 6 and Carolyn Coleman in District 8 — would be the sole representatives in their new districts. But all would have to run again next year, as I understand it, regardless of whether their last election was in 2010 or 2008.

Guilford County commissioner unhappy with her party over redistricting plan

ORIGINAL POST: Guilford County Commissioner Linda Shaw, a Republican, expressed displeasure about a redistricting plan created by her party. She confronted Jon Firebaugh, the vice chair of the Guilford County Republican Party, about changes to her district. She also complained that Firebaugh did not share earlier plans with her until she asked for them.

Guilford County commissioner confronts GOP county VC, part 1 from Jordan Green on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green2 on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green2 on Vimeo.



Untitled from Jordan Green on Vimeo.



UPDATE: Firebaugh acknowledges he misspoke when he said that Shaw only represents one Summerfield precinct.

"She was right," he says. "I was wrong."

Firebaugh says he had another map in mind when he made the statement. In fact, District 3, which Shaw represents, includes all four Summerfield precincts and two Oak Ridge precincts. Her complaint about the map drawn by her party is that it draws her out of a significant portion of her current district.

Firebaugh says he apologized to Shaw on Joe Guarino's blog, and plans to do so directly, too.

(Production note: I'm attempting to process additional video from yesterday's exchange, and plan to post it in sequence. The slow progress is frustrating.)

UPDATE 2: The final fourth video (third in the sequence) is posted.