These maps are not being submitted to the county staff and are not endorsed by the author, but rather are intended to provoke public comment about how electoral district lines can be redrawn for the Guilford County Commission to provide the most representative and accountable government for citizens. Public engagement is critical to achieving positive outcomes in local government. The commission is expected to vote to adopt a redistricting plan next month.
All three maps attempt to comply with the criteria established by House Bill 450, which was approved by the NC General Assembly last month. The law requires at least three districts with a black voting age population of greater than 50 percent and that the plan achieve a population balance with no more than 10 percentage points between the largest and smallest district.
INCUMBENT PROTECTION MAPStarting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the plan ensures that all incumbents who were either elected to represent districts in 2010 or are seeking reelection to district seats in 2012 will be the sole incumbent in their new district so that they may continue to serve without competition from other elected representatives. Takes into consideration communities of interest, where possible.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 9.2 percent
Drawbacks: Meandering electoral boundary lines do not pay heed to communities of interest in Greensboro minority strength districts and in southeast Guilford district. Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts are split. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Keeps seven sitting commissioners who want to continue to serve in dedicated districts so they may avoid running against each other in future elections. Somewhat resembles current plan, allowing maximum number of voters to maintain relationship with representatives. Greensboro and north-northeastern Guilford districts are fairly compact.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.
Red district (High Point minority strength district)
Hispanic voting age population: 10.1 percent
White voting age population: 37.2 percent
Black voting age population: 45.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 61.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 18.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Green district (Greensboro minority strength district A)
Hispanic voting age population: 7.2 percent
White voting age population: 23.1 percent
Black voting age population: 63.0 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 8.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.3 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Dark blue district (Greensboro minority strength district B)
Hispanic voting age population: 7.0 percent
White voting age population: 26.2 percent
Black voting age population: 62.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 13.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 15.0 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Carolyn Coleman (D-9)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Purple district (High Point)
Hispanic voting age population: 6.1 percent
White voting age population: 67.7 percent
Black voting age population: 19.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup
Yellow district (Greensboro)
Hispanic voting age population: 3.8 percent
White voting age population: 76.9 percent
Black voting age population: 14.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 45.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.5 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6), Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean
Sky blue district (western Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.4 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 36.4 percent
Republican voter registration: 38.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.6 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Republican lean
Tan district (northern Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 3.7 percent
White voting age population: 73.0 percent
Black voting age population: 19.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.2 percent
Republican voter registration: 35.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.7 percent
Incumbent residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive
Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.8 percent
Black voting age population: 14.7 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 39.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)* and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean
* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.
GEOGRAPHIC COMPACTNESS MAPStarting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the map is drawn to give the remaining five districts maximum compactness, while also taking into consideration communities of interest.
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 5.8 percent
Drawbacks: Incumbents are placed in the same district, or “double-bunked,” making it unlikely that such a plan would garner sufficient votes to be adopted. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Generally creates compact and well defined districts, with the exception of a meandering minority strength district made up of High Point, Jamestown and Greensboro precincts. Northeast and southeast Greensboro each have their own district. Keeps Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts together.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.
Green district (High Point minority strength)
Hispanic voting age population: 10.2 percent
White voting age population: 35.3 percent
Black voting age population: 47.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 63.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 17.6 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.0 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1) and Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Pink district (Greensboro minority strength A)
Hispanic voting age population: 7.7 percent
White voting age population: 22.9 percent
Black voting age population: 63.1 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.1 percent
Republican voter registration: 9.7 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Red district (Greensboro minority strength B)
Hispanic voting age population: 7.6 percent
White voting age population: 23.8 percent
Black voting age population: 63.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 71.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 10.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.4 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Purple district (High Point)
Hispanic voting age population: 6.7 percent
White voting age population: 66.6 percent
Black voting age population: 19.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup
Tan district (Greensboro)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 46.0 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6) and Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Democratic lean
Sky blue district (northwest and western Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.2 percent
White voting age population: 76.7 percent
Black voting age population: 10.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 33.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 41.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Republican lean
Yellow district (northern and northeast Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 3.4 percent
White voting age population: 77.2 percent
Black voting age population: 15.4 percent
Democratic voter registration: 39.1 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.2 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.5 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Tossup
Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.0 percent
White voting age population: 76.2 percent
Black voting age population: 16.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 37.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 40.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)*, Carolyn Coleman (D-9) and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean
* Mike Winstead and Billy Yow are not seeking reelection.
SUPER GEOGRAPHIC COMPACTNESS MAPStarting consideration: After meeting requirements for minority representation and population balance, the map is drawn to give the remaining five districts maximum compactness, while also taking into consideration communities of interest. In other words, this map is drawn based on the same considerations as the geographic compactness map. It takes the principle a step further by attempting to straighten out electoral district boundaries by swapping some precincts, with the tradeoff that minority population is diluted in the High Point minority strength district and one of the Greensboro minority strength districts. Precincts G26 (near Lees Chapel Road in Greensboro), G69 and G70 (East Lee Street in Greensboro) Fentress 2 (in southeast Guilford) and G57 (off of Freeman Mill Road in Greensboro) are affected
Author: Jordan Green
Deviation from ideal population: 6.4 percent
Drawbacks: Incumbents are placed in the same district, or “double-bunked,” making it unlikely that such a plan would garner sufficient votes to be adopted. (All maps split Jamestown, Adams Farm and southeastern segments of High Point to while marrying central High Point and southwest Greensboro precincts to maintain a minority strength district in High Point.)
Advantages: Generally creates compact and well defined districts, with the exception of a meandering minority strength district made up of High Point, Jamestown and Greensboro precincts. Northeast and southeast Greensboro each have their own district. Keeps Summerfield and Pleasant Garden precincts together.
Overall political analysis: Democrats are guaranteed four seats. Republicans have two solid seats. Two additional seats in play.
Green district (High Point minority strength)
Hispanic voting age population: 10.4 percent
White voting age population: 35.6 percent
Black voting age population: 46.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 62.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 17.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 19.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bruce Davis (D-1) and Skip Alston (D-8)
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Pink district (Greensboro minority strength A)
Hispanic voting age population: 6.3 percent
White voting age population: 31.3 percent
Black voting age population: 56.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 69.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 12.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 17.6 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Red district (Greensboro minority strength B)
Hispanic voting age population: 7.3 percent
White voting age population: 21.0 percent
Black voting age population: 66.6 percent
Democratic voter registration: 73.8 percent
Republican voter registration: 9.4 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 16.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Democratic stronghold
Purple district (High Point)
Hispanic voting age population: 6.7 percent
White voting age population: 66.6 percent
Black voting age population: 19.2 percent
Democratic voter registration: 38.9 percent
Republican voter registration: 37.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.1 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Bill Bencini (R-2)
Political analysis: Tossup
Tan district (Greensboro)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.3 percent
White voting age population: 76.5 percent
Black voting age population: 14.9 percent
Democratic voter registration: 46.0 percent
Republican voter registration: 30.0 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.9 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kay Cashion (D-6) and Linda Shaw (R-3)
Political analysis: Democratic lean
Sky blue district (northwest and western Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.2 percent
White voting age population: 76.7 percent
Black voting age population: 10.8 percent
Democratic voter registration: 33.3 percent
Republican voter registration: 41.9 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 24.7 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: None
Political analysis: Republican lean
Yellow district (northern and northeast Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 3.5 percent
White voting age population: 74.7 percent
Black voting age population: 17.5 percent
Democratic voter registration: 40.6 percent
Republican voter registration: 35.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 23.4 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Mike Winstead (R-7)* and Paul Gibson (D-at large)
Political analysis: Democratic lean, but competitive
Baby blue district (southeast Guilford)
Hispanic voting age population: 4.0 percent
White voting age population: 76.2 percent
Black voting age population: 16.3 percent
Democratic voter registration: 37.7 percent
Republican voter registration: 40.8 percent
Unaffiliated voter registration: 21.3 percent
Incumbents residing in this district: Kirk Perkins (D-4), Billy Yow (R-5)*, Carolyn Coleman (D-9) and John Parks (D-at large)
Political analysis: Republican lean
Submit your own redistricting map.
The public is invited to the redistricting committee of the Guilford County Commission through Wednesday, July 6. Maps can be sent to Guilford County Legal Department, PO Box 3427, Greensboro, NC 27402, or e-mailed to mpayne@co.guilford.us.
Happy Fourth of July!
4 comments:
Great work Jordan. This really helps keep the discussion going.
Thanks, Craftyboro. Last night, I was thinking about how the incumbent protection map draws Democrat Kirk Perkins into a Republican leaning district that he likely could not hold in next year's election. In that scenario, the Democrats and Republicans could each end up with four district seats.
To maintain five out of eight district seats (including three minority strength districts and a white Greensboro district likely represented by Kay Cashion), the county commission might draw JEF1 (where Perkins resides) into the tan district. This would be a partisan gerrymander, if you will. Something to ponder.
Again, I'm not advocating one way or the other, just trying to air different possibilities.
Is there a program that helps you run this? Does the Board of Elections help with this sort of analysis?
You may just be a spreadsheet maven after all this.......
I basically use a spreadsheet. I've run off some copies of a precinct map, and I use a highlighter and black pen to keep track of the physical arrangement of precincts. I had to get someone to teach me to use Photoshop to produce maps that are actually presentable.
I'm offering the data and my technical expertise free of charge to anyone who wants to submit a map. So far, no one has taken me up on it.
As an experiment, I'm interested in seeing how we can get maximum citizen participation in this process. I understand that the NC General Assembly redistricting committee has set up public terminals so that citizens can create redistricting plans. I think Guilford County could do the same thing at minimal expense. The technology is cheap and available, but it's more politically expedient to allow elected officials and political parties to control the process.
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